BRI and the Rebirth of the Levant: Opportunity in Post War Reconstruction
Written by Fadhil Haidar Sulaeman | Edited by William Help
In the Medieval Age, international trade runs through the Silk Road, in which goods and spices were delivered through trans-continental land and sea route. From the Imperial city of Peking and Hangzhou, the Silk Road utilizes the Karakoram Mountains and ends in the region of the Levant, in which the trade with the European society would continue either through Anatolia or Italy (Strayer and Nelson, 2009). Hence, the Levant holds critical positions for the Silk Road to function efficiently, such as the city of Damascus, Palmyra, and Aleppo, and thus, the region prospers. Unfortunately, the modern Syrian economic has been reduced to ashes due to the enraging Civil War, which destroys its domestic market and capabilities to interact in international trade (Mechy, 2019), and their GDP have been deteriorating ever since the first shot in 2019 (Lloyd, 2019). In the current situation, it suffices to say that the Syrian government would need a tremendous amount of money to restore its economy to the pre-war condition, with estimates as high as $250 Billion (Jansen, 2019). Meanwhile, China is seeking to re-establish its role as a preeminent global power, and thus expand its comprehensive economic assistance with the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, this essay would argue that the Belt and Road Initiative could have a significant impact on the Syrian prosperity in the post-war reconstruction.
The Syrian Arab Republic, with President Bashar al-Assad as its head of state, was one of the few countries in the Middle East that had a hostile diplomatic relationship with the West. The United States of America, as the beacon of the western civilization, broke the principle of non-intervention with Syria in both the Obama and Trump administration. In the former presidency, the U.S. conducts clandestine and covert operations to support the rebellion against Damascus. Codenamed Operation Timber Sycamore, the CIA’s Special Activity Division secretly trains and arms Al-Qaeda rebels to topple President Assad (Cordesman, 2016). President Trump, on the other hand, prefers to use a more hawkish policy to pressure the Assad government into submission. Without the consent of the United Nations Security Council, Donald Trump authorizes the U.S. Navy to conduct missile strikes on Shayrat Syrian Air Force Base in 2017 (Siddiqui and Gambino, 2017). Seeing that Assad has not given up yet, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom launched a joint airstrike against multiple targets in Syria in 2018 (Bayoumi, 2018). Thus, with the U.S. and its allies antagonizing Assad, it would be difficult for Damascus to lend money from the West and rebuild its nation from devastation resulted by the civil war. The International Monetary Fund Director, Christine Lagarde, denies any involvement in the reconstruction process (Fox Business, 2017), while the Trump administration also denies aid as long as Bashar al-Assad and his allies still hold power (France 24, 2018).
With the West having problem with Bashar al-Assad, China could utilize this momentum to assist Syria in the reconstruction process for geopolitical importance. Syria lies between Western-Central Asia and the Mediterranean Sea, which could be used as a significant trade route for the Belt and Road Initiative. It provides access to Europe Through the Mediterranean Sea and borders directly with Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel, thus making them a geopolitical fulcrum in the Middle East (Gorst, 2016). More importantly, it could serve as an alternative route to the long-established Suez Canal, which superpowers have been using as a means for naval domination (Coles, 2006). Currently, the Egyptian government is a staunch ally of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in which the latter is an ally of the United States (McNamara, 2016). Reports have been surfacing that the Port of Tripoli in Lebanon is set to be the central logistical hub that could be connected to the Syrian city of Homs, thus making the port functioning priorities for the Syrian reconstruction process (De Stone and Suber, 2019). Furthermore, Chinese entrepreneur has been familiar with the country even when the war is still raging. In 2017, China created the “First Trade Exhibition on the Syrian Reconstruction Project,” in which China committed to contribute USD 2 billion to rebuild the Syrian industry and trade, focusing on plans to build an integrated industrial complex that can accommodate up to 150 companies (Belt & Road News, 2019). Huawei, one of the Chinese tech giants, has committed to rebuild the Syrian telecommunications system in 2020, and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has significant stakes in Syria’s two largest oil companies, the Syrian Oil Company and Al Furat Petroleum (Layy, 2019).
Indeed, the Chinese investment for the Syrian reconstruction would not set on stage unless the war has been settled. Currently, the Al-Qaeda rebellion still controls the Province of Idlib, while the Kurdish separatist has been managing most of the territory located on the north of the Euphrates River. However, that does not mean that no progress on peace settlement and reconciliation have been conducted. Currently, the United Nations have successfully convinced the Assad government and the rebellion to form a UN-sponsored constitutional committee. The committee would be the channel where the government and the rebels discuss and agreed upon a new constitution that could serve as a stepping stone towards a peaceful Syria (Bays, 2019). Moreover, Turkey is set to conduct an offensive in Northern Syria to exterminate the threat of the Kurdish separatist movement (Sarmini-Buonaccorsi, 2019). If the invasion is put on the motion, then the Syrian government could take advantage of the situation and retract the Kurdish separatist of their quasi-otonomy status (Nazwar, 2019).
With the rise of the new silk road, China could alleviate the misery of third-world countries out of their economic turbulences. With the West turning their face away from Syria, China could come to their rescue and become the hero of the day. With a very strategic location and a friendly government towards Beijing, Syria could become a potential partner to Belt and Road Initiative. Hopefully, this partnership would benefit the Syrian people and brings prosperity that even the pre-war condition could not be matched.
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